Post by Boltor on Mar 27, 2011 8:54:10 GMT -5
Sorry LOOOOOOONNNNNGGGGG POST
The assassin has been very cunning in this game, and it has come to this final threeway showdown.
So for me I must choose: Ipad or Eist....
The Silent or active one.
This is going to be hard.
I suspect both of you, the perfect assassin would always pretend to be a villager.
Or maybe he just got lucky and never got full the attention they deserved by diverting the vote from them.
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Me and Eist did try to vote Ipad at the minna lynch...
MinnaCaroline was the first person to put a lynch vote on Wordy! And Wordy was a werewolf! There is no way Minna is a werewolf! She could be the assassin, I guess.. (A side note: Do the werewolves and the assassin know each other?).
I'm changing my vote. But who to? Let us take a look.
It needs to be somebody who only jumped on the lynch mob for Wordy. It should be someone who has posted disproportionally low for the amount of time on the forum. It should be someone who only essentially reiterates what others have said (examples: lamenting the loss of Woon; conveying horror at the assassins pwnage in the first night phase).
In my mind, this person is iPadonia.
Vote change from MinnaCaroline to iPadonia
I don't think Minna is a wolf, she seems to outgoing and exuberant to be one. Wolves would reveal very little info and Minna reveals plenty of what's on her mind. To me right now, anyone can strike and I think that we should think more carefully on who we lynch as opposed to impulsively rush into it. Wolves never lynch each other unless as a last resort like La Vida did last game. Right now, I don't have enough info to convince me to lynch.
Vote: No Lynch
I don't see the point in a no lynch, because the ww and the assassin are going to nail two people overnight. You'll still be in the same situation the next day, minus two more players.
Gotta trust your gut!
Vote: iPadonia
The only conclusion from that I could get is that Eist could of kept voting for minna but choose to divert targets to ipad.
I didn't feel minna was a werewolf so I wanted to vote someone I felt more likely a werewolf/assassin, someone quiet up to that point so I choose to back Eist's vote on ipad.
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The first phase was a no lynch phase. No big deal. Secondly were pages about werewolves, weretigers, werehippos, and werenudists. Nothing can be inferred from this. Night phase 1 passed, and the damage was severe. A bit more chatter, Woon votes to lynch Wordy. Minna votes Woon, a huge gap, then the third vote is Markanite, to vote in Woon also. If this was Wordy, then there is very little chance Markanite was a werewolf. But it wasn’t Wordy. It was Woon. Agenopolis votes Woon, Boltor (the 2nd still currenly alive player) votes Wordy. A little late in the process to rule him out, but he has certainly helped himself here as Woon only had 3 or 4 votes on him at that point. Cerb is next, votes Woon. I vote Agenopolis.. and the rest are too late for it to matter who they vote for.
It is important to note that they voted late or not at all though!
The 2nd night phase passes. Woon is a villager, 3liT3 (MS Word thinks 3liT3 is a word?!) is a villager, and the werewolves killed nobody. Guy votes Markanite, Minna votes Wordy, MARKANITE VOTES WORDY. He would be extremely unlikely to turn on his own on the third vote! That’s crazy. Especially when you’re delegate . Guy changes vote to Wordy, I followed by Byzesion, Cerb, Boltor, La Vida, Tsim and then the rest vote Wordy. Important note: FGFA and iPad are late on this lynch.
The 3rd night phase passes. Wordy was a werewolf. Guy was a villager, HM was a villager. Minna votes Gunny, Tsim votes Agenopolis, followed by myself, Boltor, Byzesion, iPad, FGFA, Agenopolis himself and Markanite. Some other stuff occurs, Agenopolis is lynched, and he was a villager. Thanya was a villager.
The 4th night phase passes. Markanite votes Minna, Minna votes Markanite. I vote Minna, followed by Cerb and Tsim. I change my vote to iPad, Boltor votes iPad. Minna is lynched, and she is a villager. La Vida is a defender, Tsim is a werewolf. Now this is where we are up to!
So what can we take out of this?
Markanite:
Day 2. Votes for Woon early. Turns out to be a villager.
Day 3. Markanite votes Wordy early, almost guaranteeing him to not be a werewolf.
Day 4. Votes Agenopolis late, turns out to be a villager.
Day 5. Votes Minna early, turns out to be a villager
Boltor:
Day 2. Votes for Wordy early, almost guaranteeing him to not be a werewolf.
Day 3. Votes Wordy in the middle of a lynch mob.
Day 4. Votes Agenopolis early, turns out to be a villager.
Day 5. Votes iPad, who is still unknown.
Cerb:
Day 2. Votes Woon late. Is a villager.
Day 5. Votes Minna early, turns out to be a villager
Eist:
Day 3. Vote for Wordy, early and turns out to be a werewolf.
Day 4. Votes Agenopolis early, turns out to be a villager.
Day 5. Votes Minna early, turns out to be a villager, change vote to iPad, who is still unknown.
Bysezion:
Day 3. Byzesion votes Wordy early, almost guaranteeing him to not be a werewolf.
Day 4. Votes Agenopolis earlyish, turns out to be a villager.
So, in my mind, this analysis weighs in favour of Markanite, Boltor, Bysezion and myself. It does not look good for iPad who does not have any important features at all in this analysis. Even worse off is Cerb who gains negative points, for voting to lynch Woon, then voting Minna. The other alive person is FGFA, who has been very active, but has not lynched very much at all. This would ordinarily arouse my suspicions, but the post by Wordy regarding FGFA being a twin, and taking him down with her makes me think twice. I’d seriously doubt someone as experienced as Wordy would implicate another werewolf like this. In saying this FGFA has totally being asking for the lynch .
Vote lynch: Cerb
If there are any errors in this, then my apologies. Feel free to disagree with the analysis, of course!
At the cerb lynch Eist put out a nice long analysis, something I have also done before then (although I suspected Agenopolis who turned out a villager, unlike Eist who got cerb the werewolf). He included himself in the analysis and favored himself, mark, me and Bysezion. Ipad came up as a silent type in the analysis.
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Also at the cerb lynch both remaining werewolves (gunny and cerb) both targeted ipad. The assassin did kill Tsim the werewolf the night before.
Ipad's been quietly lurking and I think is likely to be either the WW or more likely, the assassin.
vote: lynch Ipad
Eist
Bysezion
Free Guns For All
Boltor
IPadonia
Cerb
Markanite
Okay, you and Boltor obviously went very in-depth for your analysises, so I don't suspect you guys much, and I'm ruling myself out unless I get a really high number of votes. I'll cast a vote now, but it will be subject to change if evidence points to someone else.
Vote: Ipadonia
I wonder if they suspected the assassin as ipad and wanted to afford better odds at winning by eliminating the competition and winning favor among the remaining villagers by ridding us of the assassin.
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So after the cerb lynch,(where we all voted cerb) the assassin kills the werewolf. All of us then vote to lynch Byzesion the elder.
In saying this, iPadonia has been too quiet, and in his rare postings has come across as a little.. contrite (not sure if that is the correct word). I think he is the assassin. Although in saying this, the assassin is really dangerous, I'm not sure iPadonia is hands on enough to be the assassin (he doesn't log in very much). I'd like to hear what you guys think
I'm holding off my vote for the moment.
On the decision about who the assassin is, I personnally don't think its Ipad, although he strongly denied he was a WW, he never said he wasnt the assassin so theres that.
Bysezion has been quiet too, but helped deliver the vote against Cerb, so it could be him.
Boltor, I think is a villager.
Eist, you've been very vocal and strategic, so you could have been playing the assassin role and voting together very well.
I'm going to dwell on this and see what the others post
All I can say is that Byzesion continually acts surprised. For instance: “Honestly, I'm surprised that we made it this far.”, “Well, this is a complete and total surprise. I am 100% serious, I did not see this coming.” What I look for in an assassin is somebody that acts ignorant, that sits back a bit, and to me, Byzesion fits the bill perfectly. I am going off nothing else, so sorry for the accusation, Byzesion, if you are not the assassin
Vote lynch: Byzesion
Well, this is a complete and total surprise. I am 100% serious, I did not see this coming.
Vote lynch: Byzesion
1: Your constant surprise posts (in which you are determined to win) yet you post your plea and its practically saying, 'I'm not gonna waste my time any more with this, lynch me.'
2: Like Eist, if you were a villager you'd want us to win and try and convince us instead of giving in.
3: You've also given us no helpful tips, guidance, theories, or even correct lynch mobs. We usually get from you a surprise post and a lynch in the middle.
Guys, lets roll the dice here. Think carefully about your analysis'. I'm concrete with mine, and if you are too. Lets take down the assasin (or possibly another villager in which case. Whoopsie!).
Vote: Byzesion
Mark says he doesn't think ipad is assassin (he doesn't explain why) and thinks I'm a villager and eist as the vocal player and maybe the assassin, Eist votes byzesion, I vote byzesion, ipad also votes byzesion and finally Byzesion accuses eist of being a suspect for the assassin in his last words, but also doesn't know what to think about Ipad and thinks I'm a villager.
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I'm kind of torn between voting for either of you. Eist could be the puppet-master assassin all along, while Ipad could be the silent assassin waiting in the shadows of the room.
If Ipad was the assassin he got rid of gunny the werewolf before gunny could motivate us to vote him out. He got rid of all the werewolves and has been picking us off ever since and supporting our vote on any villager while always claiming if we kill him we will regret the death of a villager. Ipad has also been very quiet throughout the early and middle stages of the game to "fly under the radar".
If Eist was the assassin, he diverted the last vote to byzesion after markanite brought up eist could be the assassin behind the scenes and I feel like I've been the dumb sheep who's agreed with him nearly every-time till now. He also got rid of gunny the werewolf to eliminate the competition since he pretty much admitted to suspecting gunny as werewolf after cerb was lynched, to cause chaos and avoid the chance of being killed by the werewolf in the next night phase. He has been vocal throughout the middle and late stages of the game to "fly above the radar".
And I'm just the drunk lumberjack who can't make his mind up and obviously never read the instructions for his radar tracking system.
I do realize that my argument for either of you being the assassin throws the light away from me, so if you have any strong accusations of me being the assassin I welcome a discussion about my voting in the game or a hypothetical discussion of my strategy throughout the game if you think I was the the assassin.
The assassin has been very cunning in this game, and it has come to this final threeway showdown.
So for me I must choose: Ipad or Eist....
The Silent or active one.
This is going to be hard.
I suspect both of you, the perfect assassin would always pretend to be a villager.
Or maybe he just got lucky and never got full the attention they deserved by diverting the vote from them.
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Me and Eist did try to vote Ipad at the minna lynch...
Wait a second! Lets think about this.
MinnaCaroline was the first person to put a lynch vote on Wordy! And Wordy was a werewolf! There is no way Minna is a werewolf! She could be the assassin, I guess.. (A side note: Do the werewolves and the assassin know each other?).
I'm changing my vote. But who to? Let us take a look.
It needs to be somebody who only jumped on the lynch mob for Wordy. It should be someone who has posted disproportionally low for the amount of time on the forum. It should be someone who only essentially reiterates what others have said (examples: lamenting the loss of Woon; conveying horror at the assassins pwnage in the first night phase).
In my mind, this person is iPadonia.
Vote change from MinnaCaroline to iPadonia
I'm sorry Eist but evrytime we do this whole 'lynch the person who posts least' thing it usually fails. I don't think your a wolf as simple logic makes you not one. But in WW games this usually changes.
I don't think Minna is a wolf, she seems to outgoing and exuberant to be one. Wolves would reveal very little info and Minna reveals plenty of what's on her mind. To me right now, anyone can strike and I think that we should think more carefully on who we lynch as opposed to impulsively rush into it. Wolves never lynch each other unless as a last resort like La Vida did last game. Right now, I don't have enough info to convince me to lynch.
Vote: No Lynch
That's a fair point regarding the lack of posts.
I don't see the point in a no lynch, because the ww and the assassin are going to nail two people overnight. You'll still be in the same situation the next day, minus two more players.
Gotta trust your gut!
I totally agree with what you say Eist but you'll find out that when I die I'm not a wolf or the Assasin.
I have some doubts about minna being a wolf (but not the assassin, who could be anyone), so I'm voting for ipad.
Vote: iPadonia
The only conclusion from that I could get is that Eist could of kept voting for minna but choose to divert targets to ipad.
I didn't feel minna was a werewolf so I wanted to vote someone I felt more likely a werewolf/assassin, someone quiet up to that point so I choose to back Eist's vote on ipad.
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So my research has led me to this.
The first phase was a no lynch phase. No big deal. Secondly were pages about werewolves, weretigers, werehippos, and werenudists. Nothing can be inferred from this. Night phase 1 passed, and the damage was severe. A bit more chatter, Woon votes to lynch Wordy. Minna votes Woon, a huge gap, then the third vote is Markanite, to vote in Woon also. If this was Wordy, then there is very little chance Markanite was a werewolf. But it wasn’t Wordy. It was Woon. Agenopolis votes Woon, Boltor (the 2nd still currenly alive player) votes Wordy. A little late in the process to rule him out, but he has certainly helped himself here as Woon only had 3 or 4 votes on him at that point. Cerb is next, votes Woon. I vote Agenopolis.. and the rest are too late for it to matter who they vote for.
It is important to note that they voted late or not at all though!
The 2nd night phase passes. Woon is a villager, 3liT3 (MS Word thinks 3liT3 is a word?!) is a villager, and the werewolves killed nobody. Guy votes Markanite, Minna votes Wordy, MARKANITE VOTES WORDY. He would be extremely unlikely to turn on his own on the third vote! That’s crazy. Especially when you’re delegate . Guy changes vote to Wordy, I followed by Byzesion, Cerb, Boltor, La Vida, Tsim and then the rest vote Wordy. Important note: FGFA and iPad are late on this lynch.
The 3rd night phase passes. Wordy was a werewolf. Guy was a villager, HM was a villager. Minna votes Gunny, Tsim votes Agenopolis, followed by myself, Boltor, Byzesion, iPad, FGFA, Agenopolis himself and Markanite. Some other stuff occurs, Agenopolis is lynched, and he was a villager. Thanya was a villager.
The 4th night phase passes. Markanite votes Minna, Minna votes Markanite. I vote Minna, followed by Cerb and Tsim. I change my vote to iPad, Boltor votes iPad. Minna is lynched, and she is a villager. La Vida is a defender, Tsim is a werewolf. Now this is where we are up to!
So what can we take out of this?
Markanite:
Day 2. Votes for Woon early. Turns out to be a villager.
Day 3. Markanite votes Wordy early, almost guaranteeing him to not be a werewolf.
Day 4. Votes Agenopolis late, turns out to be a villager.
Day 5. Votes Minna early, turns out to be a villager
Boltor:
Day 2. Votes for Wordy early, almost guaranteeing him to not be a werewolf.
Day 3. Votes Wordy in the middle of a lynch mob.
Day 4. Votes Agenopolis early, turns out to be a villager.
Day 5. Votes iPad, who is still unknown.
Cerb:
Day 2. Votes Woon late. Is a villager.
Day 5. Votes Minna early, turns out to be a villager
Eist:
Day 3. Vote for Wordy, early and turns out to be a werewolf.
Day 4. Votes Agenopolis early, turns out to be a villager.
Day 5. Votes Minna early, turns out to be a villager, change vote to iPad, who is still unknown.
Bysezion:
Day 3. Byzesion votes Wordy early, almost guaranteeing him to not be a werewolf.
Day 4. Votes Agenopolis earlyish, turns out to be a villager.
So, in my mind, this analysis weighs in favour of Markanite, Boltor, Bysezion and myself. It does not look good for iPad who does not have any important features at all in this analysis. Even worse off is Cerb who gains negative points, for voting to lynch Woon, then voting Minna. The other alive person is FGFA, who has been very active, but has not lynched very much at all. This would ordinarily arouse my suspicions, but the post by Wordy regarding FGFA being a twin, and taking him down with her makes me think twice. I’d seriously doubt someone as experienced as Wordy would implicate another werewolf like this. In saying this FGFA has totally being asking for the lynch .
Vote lynch: Cerb
If there are any errors in this, then my apologies. Feel free to disagree with the analysis, of course!
At the cerb lynch Eist put out a nice long analysis, something I have also done before then (although I suspected Agenopolis who turned out a villager, unlike Eist who got cerb the werewolf). He included himself in the analysis and favored himself, mark, me and Bysezion. Ipad came up as a silent type in the analysis.
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Also at the cerb lynch both remaining werewolves (gunny and cerb) both targeted ipad. The assassin did kill Tsim the werewolf the night before.
I guess it's nice reasoning, but why would I bother voting for Wordy when I could have just missed the vote or been late? I am more concerned about the person who seems to be totally under the radar.
Ipad's been quietly lurking and I think is likely to be either the WW or more likely, the assassin.
vote: lynch Ipad
Wow Eist, very thorough. Now, who to pick...
Eist
Bysezion
Free Guns For All
Boltor
IPadonia
Cerb
Markanite
Okay, you and Boltor obviously went very in-depth for your analysises, so I don't suspect you guys much, and I'm ruling myself out unless I get a really high number of votes. I'll cast a vote now, but it will be subject to change if evidence points to someone else.
Vote: Ipadonia
I wonder if they suspected the assassin as ipad and wanted to afford better odds at winning by eliminating the competition and winning favor among the remaining villagers by ridding us of the assassin.
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So after the cerb lynch,(where we all voted cerb) the assassin kills the werewolf. All of us then vote to lynch Byzesion the elder.
Oh! Good job guys! I thought Gunny was a werewolf after Cerb voted iPadonia.. And his post "Should I bother changing my vote to Cerb, or would that just be a wasted post?" was just a little too cute
In saying this, iPadonia has been too quiet, and in his rare postings has come across as a little.. contrite (not sure if that is the correct word). I think he is the assassin. Although in saying this, the assassin is really dangerous, I'm not sure iPadonia is hands on enough to be the assassin (he doesn't log in very much). I'd like to hear what you guys think
I'm holding off my vote for the moment.
Thats what I was thinking too Eist!
On the decision about who the assassin is, I personnally don't think its Ipad, although he strongly denied he was a WW, he never said he wasnt the assassin so theres that.
Bysezion has been quiet too, but helped deliver the vote against Cerb, so it could be him.
Boltor, I think is a villager.
Eist, you've been very vocal and strategic, so you could have been playing the assassin role and voting together very well.
I'm going to dwell on this and see what the others post
I think you are right, Markanite (heh, that rhymes).
All I can say is that Byzesion continually acts surprised. For instance: “Honestly, I'm surprised that we made it this far.”, “Well, this is a complete and total surprise. I am 100% serious, I did not see this coming.” What I look for in an assassin is somebody that acts ignorant, that sits back a bit, and to me, Byzesion fits the bill perfectly. I am going off nothing else, so sorry for the accusation, Byzesion, if you are not the assassin
Vote lynch: Byzesion
Yeah, Byzesion just seems to be hiding something. I don't want to seem like a sheep, but I think Eist and Markanite are probably not as likely to be the assassin as Byzesion, so....
Well, this is a complete and total surprise. I am 100% serious, I did not see this coming.
Vote lynch: Byzesion
I don't understand Byzesion. If you are a villager, as you profess, wouldn't you rather the villagers won? You must have an idea of who the assassin is, if you are not him. iPadonia hasn’t voted, and all you would need is one other person to agree with you, and to switch their vote, then you’d be saved! At the very least, your vote (hopefully with an explanation) will garner suspicion in that person in the next day phase.
Byzesion, your plea seems fake to me for these reasons:
1: Your constant surprise posts (in which you are determined to win) yet you post your plea and its practically saying, 'I'm not gonna waste my time any more with this, lynch me.'
2: Like Eist, if you were a villager you'd want us to win and try and convince us instead of giving in.
3: You've also given us no helpful tips, guidance, theories, or even correct lynch mobs. We usually get from you a surprise post and a lynch in the middle.
Guys, lets roll the dice here. Think carefully about your analysis'. I'm concrete with mine, and if you are too. Lets take down the assasin (or possibly another villager in which case. Whoopsie!).
Vote: Byzesion
Okay, will, now that I've had a few hours to consider it, I do have an idea. Eist, you're out as a suspect. Markanite first said that he would wait to see what others would post, then went against it and chose me as a suspect. Boltor seems like he's just been going with the flow, and doesn't seem as active a force as the assassin would need to be. Ipad...well, I don't know about Ipad. He seems to be on the cusp of usefulness while being just quiet enough to stay hidden. As for me, I'm quiet because I have nothing to say. I really don't know who it could be anymore, and most of the time I don't have any guesses. Until now, that is.
Mark says he doesn't think ipad is assassin (he doesn't explain why) and thinks I'm a villager and eist as the vocal player and maybe the assassin, Eist votes byzesion, I vote byzesion, ipad also votes byzesion and finally Byzesion accuses eist of being a suspect for the assassin in his last words, but also doesn't know what to think about Ipad and thinks I'm a villager.
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I'm kind of torn between voting for either of you. Eist could be the puppet-master assassin all along, while Ipad could be the silent assassin waiting in the shadows of the room.
If Ipad was the assassin he got rid of gunny the werewolf before gunny could motivate us to vote him out. He got rid of all the werewolves and has been picking us off ever since and supporting our vote on any villager while always claiming if we kill him we will regret the death of a villager. Ipad has also been very quiet throughout the early and middle stages of the game to "fly under the radar".
If Eist was the assassin, he diverted the last vote to byzesion after markanite brought up eist could be the assassin behind the scenes and I feel like I've been the dumb sheep who's agreed with him nearly every-time till now. He also got rid of gunny the werewolf to eliminate the competition since he pretty much admitted to suspecting gunny as werewolf after cerb was lynched, to cause chaos and avoid the chance of being killed by the werewolf in the next night phase. He has been vocal throughout the middle and late stages of the game to "fly above the radar".
And I'm just the drunk lumberjack who can't make his mind up and obviously never read the instructions for his radar tracking system.
I do realize that my argument for either of you being the assassin throws the light away from me, so if you have any strong accusations of me being the assassin I welcome a discussion about my voting in the game or a hypothetical discussion of my strategy throughout the game if you think I was the the assassin.