Within a week of taking office

[Aersoldorf]

Did you favor Dean or Marlisa?

[Ater Nox]

Henry

[Tanzoria]

?

[Aersoldorf]

I don't think Dean or Marlisa spell their name Henry

[Tanzoria]

who?

[Louisistan]

Apr 22, 2016 18:21:10 GMT -5 Tanzoria said:

Don't bother nox

I'll bother Ater Nox whenever I like.

[Aersoldorf]

Apr 24, 2016 5:10:19 GMT -5 Tanzoria said:

who?

Dean and Marlisa, I was fairly clear on that point.

[Mayor Shelter Political Party]

MSPP officeholders all have put up calendars in their offices within the first week, give or take. It's hard to tell without a calendar.

[Louisistan]

It's known as one of our more restrictive policies.

[Jabberwocky]

My calendar expired

[Louisistan]

Well the rule doesn't say it needs to be a current calendar.

[Tanzoria]

Within a week of taking office, I would travel to Indonesia

[Louisistan]

Within a day of taking office Kemmerich would ask for a snap election.

[Tanzoria]

what do you think will happen in the election

[Louisistan]

As of now, there's no guarantee that there will even be an election.

In order for that to happen, 30 members of parliament need to move and 60 must vote in favour. The FDP has five.
I'm quite sure they'll manage to get the other 25 for the motion. And the left, the greens and the social democrats are likely to vote for. But as it stands now, CDU will vote against a snap election. If that is the case and all 21 one of them follow that line, at least some of the AfD members would need to vote in favour. Which means we'll have the whole "cooperation with facists" debate once more, if the AfD even votes in favour.

The CDU would prefer that Kemmerich tables a confidence motion. If he doesn't command the confidence of a majority, parliament gets to elect a new Ministerpräsident (same procedure as before). Another option would be a constructive montion of no-conficence, but that would require another candidate to command the confidence of a majority, which isn't likely to happen. I'm with Kemmerich on this one - an election is the only way out.

Sadly, that does mean the FDP will not make it into the new Parliament. The public thinks they've bungled this and the media are basically shifting all the blame onto them (although the regular people I spoke with do agree that everyone involved has made mistakes). With FDP out of the picture and another likely voter shift to the extremes, I think they'll end up along these lines:
* About the same proportion of voters (slightly more than before) vote red/red/green
* About the same proportion of voters (slightly more than befoer) vote AfD
* About the same proportion of voters vote CDU
* With FDP definitely dropping below the 5% hurdle, those five seats are up for grabs and I'd estimate three of those to go towards the coalition and two to AfD which would result in a Parliament somwhere along those lines:

Red/red/green coalition: 45
CDU: 21
AfD: 24

And that time, nobody has any sort of majority whatsoever.
Then again, I'm probably horribly wrong on that. I suck at election prediction and have no ties to Thüringen.

[Tanzoria]

Replace proportional representation with single member electorates with results determined by preferential voting

[Louisistan]

Unlikely.

[Tanzoria]

but better

[Louisistan]

Different, mayhaps.

[Tanzoria]

leads to stable governments but also invariably creates a two party system

[Louisistan]

Two party systems suck.

[Louisistan]

Here's some polling data from Thüringen yesterday:
Die Linke: 37% (up from 31%)
AfD: 24% (up from 23.4%)
CDU: 12% (down from 21.7%)
SPD: 9% (up from 8.2%)
Greens: 7% (up from 5.2%)
FDP: 4% (down from 5%)

That would yield a clear majority, unless I'm mistaken. Also explains why CDU is suddenly open to electing Ramelow without a snap election after all.

[Tanzoria]

fantastic

[Echolilia]

Apr 19, 2016 4:59:03 GMT -5 Tanzoria said:

I would travel to Indonesia

if what?

[Tanzoria]

in my first week of office

[Boltor]

Feb 7, 2020 8:55:59 GMT -5 Louisistan said:

Two party systems suck.

democracy sucks, the alternatives just suck too much

[Louisistan]

Feb 9, 2020 7:32:12 GMT -5 Boltor said:

Feb 7, 2020 8:55:59 GMT -5 Louisistan said:

Two party systems suck.

democracy sucks, the alternatives just suck too much

Yes, well, sure. But two party systems suck more than systems with more parties if you ask me or anyone else holding political views not represented by their countries major parties.

[Boltor]

tyranny by appeal to majority

[HumanSanity]

the worst form fo democracy

[Louisistan]

Tanzoria, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has announced she'll resign once CDU has settled on a candidate for the chancellorship.