Post by Eist on Jun 6, 2011 16:14:46 GMT -5
I just wanted to ask why you thought that a "no lynch" vote on day one is a bad thing, I didn't have enough evidence to vote for someone. I'm more suspicious of the ones who jump on every lynch vote there is, like Mark. Obviously I made the right decision in not voting on day one because you guys got Boltor, a villager.
Basically there are two alternatives:
1. ‘No lynch’ vote scenario: Day 1 arrives, everyone casts ‘no lynch’, day ends. Night 1. Werewolves kill a villager/seer/defender. Day 2. Starts… who do you vote for? You have NO evidence on anybody, you are still at square one. Are you going to ‘no lynch’ vote again? You have made absolutely no progress.
2. ‘Blind lynch’ vote scenario: Day 1 arrives, everyone casts a relatively ‘blind lynch’ vote (I say relatively because if someone posts something suspicious… or whatever). Chances are that the one lynched is a villager. This is a setback for the good guys, but from this emerges a voting pattern that you can look back upon later in the game. Imagine, hypothetically that Byzesion (I was going to use myself, but it wouldn’t have been so clear – sorry Byz!) is a werewolf, and he gets lynched in this phase, for whatever reason: We could look back and see that Boltor, followed by Tanz, Gunny all voted Byzesion on day 1, therefore it would be reasonable to believe that both Tanz and Gunny (and Boltor) were not werewolves, as it is extremely unlikely a fellow werewolf would vote another werewolf down so early in the lynch phase (it is, however, perfectly acceptable to believe that someone was a werewolf if they voted way later, in a lame attempt to cover their tracks!). Also, there is a non-insignificant possibility of lynching a werewolf, so that helps.
Until we manage to find a werewolf, made twice as hard by not having an assassin in the game, then we have very little to work on. I think in my analysis that it is reasonable to expect that Blbbo is a good guy, and the information we can gather like this is only going to grow exponentially as the game progresses.
Hope this clears up the rationale behind casting a lynch vote on the first day.