Modern Military Tactics and Strategy

[Mutanatia]

Was I supposed to post this week or next week my class? XD I'm going to post it now just in case. Sorry, Malecia >.<


To every bright side of every successful intelligence operation, there is an equal dark side to every failed intelligence, or even unauthorized by the host country, operation. This class, we will be discussing “blowback,” the fallout from failed intelligence operations, as well as the fallout from selected successful intelligence operations.

To begin, please take a look at this:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blowback_(intelligence)

Please answer 2 of the 3 questions:
1) What is blowback?
2) Describe its role in the Reagan Doctrine.
3) What was its original meaning.
4)
For this lesson, we’re going to stretch the definition to include the original meaning. Two intelligence operations were recently conducted, and we’re going to spend a bit of time on the unintended consequences of its aftermath.

Up first, we have a CIA operation in Mexico. Please look at these articles about the botched operation:

www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/americas/03/01/mexico.agent.killed/index.html?iref=allsearch

www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/americas/03/02/us.calderon.obama.visit/index.html?iref=allsearch

www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/16/jamie-zapata-killed-mexico-us-immigration_n_824084.html

This was based on the CIA operation that was meant to buy arms in the US and distribute them in Mexico, all the while tracking it. This leads to some very important question, mainly these 2:

1) What is the blowback from this event?
2) How did it happen?

Up next is the aftermath of the (successful) operation to kill Bin Laden.

www.npr.org/2011/06/15/137192560/pakistan-arrests-cia-informants-tied-to-bin-laden-raid

Read this article and answer:
1) What is the blowback from this event?
2) Why is Pakistan reacting the way it is?

Finally, the DISCUSSION QUESTION: Considering the blowback that some operations carry with it, at what point would you determine that a mission is not worth it?

[Mal]

This is your week. The final is next week.

[Mutanatia]

I hate to be a skutch (sp?), but can you push the final back to this coming Thursday-the Thursday after? Sorry for the late! >.<

[Mal]

Syllabus change:

The final exam will be a group exercise in thread. I will post it after Mut's class has concluded. We will be discussing strategy and formulating a plan to take an objective as part of an invasion force.

There will be a 5 question quiz following that exercise, and the answers will be due in my inbox at a date to be determined.

[Mal]

Mut, what's the due date for this assignment? I'm just getting back OnLine so I need a few days to catch back up.

Thanks!

[Mutanatia]

One week from when I posted that... if that works for everyone that is ^_^

[Mal]

So August 11th?

[Mutanatia]

If that works for everyone, yes ^_^

[Mal]

Works for me

[Markanite]

I'll be away from Thursday until Sunday evening (My time) with no access to the internet but I'll have this in before then

[Markanite]

Discussion: Blowback in military operations is obviously going to happen, the time to call in quits is when there is too going to be too many civilian casulaties and that people will suffer when there is no need for this to happen.

[Mal]

Considering the blowback that some operations carry with it, at what point would you determine that a mission is not worth it?

I don't know that you can predict what the blow back is going to be. I don't think any decision is made without trying to anticipate the consequences, but there are just too many variables that can happen after the fact.

I guess in a similar situation after the fact you may be able to avoid repeating the same process, but in a first time op, there is just no way to know what the blow back may be and how far it will resonate.

[Mutanatia]

Well, let me post a question to the REAL professor of the class xD:
When we went into Pakistan, weren't they already not cooperating with us about a myriad of things anyway? As such, we could kind have seen something like this coming.

A more relevant question for the my professor, though, would be:
IS there a branch of intelligence that deals specifically with what some potential blowbacks could be?

[Mal]

No. In any pre-op plan, a 'graph or two at the end may be reserved to anticipate possible backlash or blowback. But in general, ops are planned a few months in advance, and the problem is that any variable can change things. And the problem with that is that a lot of those variables are unseen.

[Kannex]

Wouldn't the civilian affairs or public relations branch of the military deal with the blow-back problems? There's a book called Sunrise over Fallujah by Walter Dean Myers that tells of a guy in an Army unit that deals with civilian affairs...

[Mal]

Those branches are a little different. They primarily act as a liaison between indigenous people and the military. They don't necessarily handle backlash from intelligence operations unless it's had an effect on the local population.

[Mal]

Final Exam.

Before I post the final, I want to thank Mut and Mark for making my first teaching experience a positive one. I especially want to thank Mutanatia for filling in for a week while I was extremely busy R/L.

For the final....

You are going to go to the RP map on the RP board. You will pick a nation on the map and you will plan an invasion and occupation of the nation.

Remembering what you learned in this class, what are some of the things you'll need to consider as you develop your overall strategy? Remember that EVERYTHING matters.

A short list of things to consider:

• Local indigenous personnel and their reaction to your arrival
  
• Enemy strength, weapons, tactics
  
• terrain
  
• How will the occupying force be treated by locals?
  
• Will you have to deal with insurgency
  
• What's your exit strategy?
  

For this exercise, consider that the nation you're going to invade has a military that is on par with a Western European nation and that the political system is fairly stable. Also consider that this is a secular country, and a democracy.

[Markanite]

Do we post it here or PM it to you

[Mal]

This is agroup exercise so you can post here. Since I consider this an advanced class, there's no need for a formal exam for the final.

[Markanite]

Great so we just post points and ideas?

Well I think, in modern day warfare, aircraft need to be a main point. We'd need to take out main miltary positions and maybe disable their use of airports, by creating a no fly zone and enforcing this.

Simultaneously we could land troops north and south of the Island (I was looking at Aerso's map for this), likely near to known ports. By taking ports we could get troops ready and stationed on the ground, as well as bring in artillery like tanks etc.

The capital would be defended first obviously so surrounding that could be key. Taking smaller towns using minimal violence on the populus and innocent citizens could remove the risk of them turning on our troops.

This is as far as I thought Its obviously flawed. I can't think of the best way to take the capital

[Mal]

Here's a newsflash: EVERY plan, no matter how well thought out, is flawed. Why? Because the more comp[lex the plan, the more variables there are that you can't account for. It's the "butterfly effect" in action.

With that being said, you have a solid plan. You can't take a capital and push out. You have to land on the outskirts and push in.

[Kannex]

Aug 18, 2011 17:57:03 GMT -5 Mal said:

Here's a newsflash: EVERY plan, no matter how well thought out, is flawed. Why? Because the more comp[lex the plan, the more variables there are that you can't account for. It's the "butterfly effect" in action.

With that being said, you have a solid plan. You can't take a capital and push out. You have to land on the outskirts and push in.

You mean, to paraphrase the great prophet Alex Smedry, "the more complicated things are, the more things that can go wrong. For example, my computer is merely a click away from a total meltdown, but yet my pencil remains remarkably virus-free."

Considering the capital is the country's most important city, there will be a lot of resistance. Consider the Battle of Nanjing and the Siege of Moscow. Even when the odds are completely against the defender, they were compelled to fight and sacrifice themselves to defend the city.

That being said, however, the Battle of Nanjing lasted less than two months. That's partially due to the fact that the Kuomintang government had already retreated to Chongqing and the Kuomintang troops at Nanjing (my great-grandfather was one of them) were effectively being ordered to defend an empty city.

I agree with Markanite that the first step in taking a capital city would be to surround it. Not only have you cut off the head of the snake, you have also trapped a large contingent of enemy troops inside the besieged capital.

I'm thinking of using howitzers, mortars, and other artillery to deal some damage to the city before having the troops enter it. Aerial bombardment is a must; attack helicopters and other ground-attack helicopter will be used. Maybe I'll send some special operations forces to wreck some damage inside the city.

After that comes the attack. Armored and infantry forces attack the city from various entrances; malls, hospitals, government buildings, highways, and other strategic points are to be taken. The subway system should be neutralized, either by destroying it or capturing it. Capturing the subway system would cost more lives, but it's worth it, considering the metro system would prove to be quite useful later on.

Then comes mopping up resistance. Most of the resistance would likely come from the quiet residential areas, so I would have my forces secure each neighborhood one-by-one and announce that anybody who hides an enemy soldier will suffer the consequences.

After that, I send my troops to the Reichstag building and take a historic photo of them planting a flag on the roof...

[Mal]

After that, I send my troops to the Reichstag building and take a historic photo of them planting a flag on the roof...

LOL!! OK. Brain twister. Switch roles and become the defender. Now what?

[Kannex]

Establish good supply lines. The fact that the capital is going to be surrounded is obvious. Good supply lines may mean underground tunnels, railways, highways, roads, etc.
Actually, a better one would be, "establish more supply lines". Use highways, roads, etc. and designate other possible supply and retreat routes. Keep the supplies and the manpower pouring in while the city is under attack. Like in Stalingrad, I will overwhelm the attackers with numbers, determination, and reinforcements.

There will be patrolling fighter planes flying over the city once every few minutes prior to and during the attack, so that my aerial forces will be able to respond to any aerial attack within a matter of seconds.

I will place troops on the outskirts of the capital city. These troops are to be used for slowing down the attackers and - most importantly - warning the headquarters of the incoming enemy.

Meanwhile, I will also have a significant portion of troops on stand-by near the center of the city, so they are versatile and will be ready to reinforce whichever point is being attacked by enemy troops.

If the enemy has overwhelming power, I would gradually have my troops pull back towards the center of the city. Here, if my troops are surrounded, I will resort to guerrilla warfare. The sewers, subway system, alleyways, and highways will be used for ambushing and attacking incoming enemy troops. Burning cars placed at the center of the road to block the tanks or at least annoy the invaders. If the situation gets really worse, government buildings, factories, highways, and malls will be blown up so that the enemy can't use them.

[Mal]

Very nicely done. I like the thinking.

[newrolendra]

Is it too late to join for the exam?

[Mal]

This thread is wrapped up. U can take part in the follow up, Modern Military Tactics and Strategy 201.