A year in German politics

[Tanzoria]

Feb 5, 2017 8:11:07 GMT -5 Louisistan said:

Election of the Federal President

On February 12th, the 16th Federal Convention will convene in the chamber of the Federal Diet in order to elect the next Federal President. The sitting President Joachim Gauck will not be running for re-election. The Convention will consist of the 630 members of the Federal Diet and another 630 members which were chosen by the state legislatures.

The Convention will most likely have these parties:
CDU/CSU: 539 seats
SPD: 384 seats
Greens: 174 seats
Lefts: 95 seats
FDP: 36 seats
Pirates: 11 seats
FW: 10 seats
SSW: 1 seat
BVB/FW: 1 seat
AfD: 35 seats
Independent: 1 seat

The Piratenpartei (Pirate Party) is part of a movement which was founded in scandinavia. It aims at reforming intellecual property laws and reducing government surveillance. The Freie Wähler (Free Voters) are different movements in different states. In the list above "FW" refers to the Free Voters from Bavaria, while BVB/FW are those from Brandenburg. The SSW is the Südschleswigscher Wählerverband (South Schleswig Voter's Association), a party representing the Danish minority in Schleswig-Holstein. The one independent seat belongs to Erika Steinbach, a conservative former CDU member and member of the Federal Diet, who recently left her party and caucus.

The Electors selected by the states are usually mostly state politicians, but also include a few celebrities. The German National Soccer Team's Coach Joachim Löw will be representing The Greens from Baden-Württemberg.

The Federal Convention will be chaired by the President of the Federal Diet, Norbert Lammert (CDU). In order to be elected, a candidate must receive an absolute majority of votes (631 votes) on either the first or second ballot. If that doesn't happen a simple majority is needed on the third ballot.

CDU, CSU, FDP and the Greens have nominated former Foreign Minister Dr. Frank Walter Steinmeier (pictured left) for the office. The AfD has nominated Albrecht Glaser, a former city treasurer from Frankfurt. Prof. Dr. Christoph Butterwege from Cologne has been nominated by The Lefts and Judge Alexander Hold (a judge both on TV and in real life) has been nominated by the FW. Comedian Martin Sonneborn (founder of the satire party "Die PARTEI" and member of the European Parliament) who has been sent to the Federal Convention by the Pirate Party has announced that he will nominate his father because "he's the only one that hasn't done anything wrong".

Normally, all (or almost all) members of the Convention vote along party lines, which makes it very likely that Dr. Steinmeier will be elected on the first ballot.

The election will be broadcast via a live stream on the Federal Diet website.

The SPD has not nominated anyone?

[Louisistan]

Sorry, typo.

Steinmeier is an SPD member. So of course the SPD has also nominated him along witht hw other parties listed above.

[Hahiha / USSR]

Feb 6, 2017 1:43:52 GMT -5 Witchcraft and Sorcery said:

I've been reading around - Merkel's numbers have slipped even further. There was an article on Tagesschau recently about fractures growing between CDU and CSU that could cause problems for Merkel. Horst Seehofer (head of the CSU) seems to favor stronger positions on certain issues than Merkel and I wouldn't be surprised if other parties begin to leverage that, particularly the rebounding SPD and the expanding AfD. I read a couple of articles that said the polling gap between SPD and CDU shrank to 4% since Martin Schulz was appointed. That's the closest the two biggest parties have been in several years.

It's also noteworthy that the outcome of France's national elections in April/May could play a huge role in how Germany's turn out. Marine Le Pen announced her candidacy under a very Trump/AfD-like banner and immediately became a frontrunner, though currently the race is wide open between three or four candidates.

It's probably inevitable that they gain some seats. I just hope that the other parties can maintain enough seats to ignore the AfD.

Right wing American preaching American exceptionalism, xenophobia, and wanting to ban Muslims - normal American.
Right wing German party - Neo-nazis.
That's all I got out of your post, W&S.

[Witchcraft and Sorcery]

That's an inappropriate generalization of my statements. I was discussing the recent shakeup in the political scene that has very little to do with the "Rechtspopulismus" that is also becoming increasingly popular. Honestly I fear right wing Americans more because of how normalized the ideology is becoming here vs. in Germany. Yes, it should come across quite obviously that I believe the AfD is dangerous just as I believe Trump and his lackeys are. NONE of this is acceptable to me. With France's elections happening before Germany's, the success or failure of certain parties there could play a major role in the outcome of Germany's election.

Updates from today:

Some polls now have SPD leading CDU/CSU for the first time in ten years. I think Schulz and SPD could be clear frontrunners within a week or two if current trends continue. This is a complete turnaround from just a few months ago when support for SPD was hitting rock bottom in state elections and AfD and the Greens were making the biggest gains. I will be very interested to follow this.

EDIT: It's also important to note that should SPD prevail, Merkel's ouster could take place in the midst of Brexit negotiations. With Martin Schulz being a very vocal supporter of the EU, the debate could change very quickly should he replace Merkel as chancellor.

[Louisistan]

Thanks for your participation, Witchcraft and Sorcery . I'm currently very busy at work, so I appreciate you keeping everyone up to date

The 16th Federal Convention met in Berlin today to elect the 12th Federal President. The Convention was chaired by Norbert Lammert (CDU), the President of the Federal Diet. As is tradition, he used his opening remarks not only to address the Convention, but also to talk about the current state of politics in Germany and the world. For example he warned of the negative consequences of protectionism. He warned that if you announce that you're putting your country first others will do the same with their country. He reminded us that there are problems that nationstates are unable to tackle by themselves.

The Convention then proceeded to cast the first ballot, yielding the following results:

• Invalid ballots: 14
  
• Prof. Dr. Christoph Butterwegge (Die Linke): 128 votes
  
• Albrecht Glaser: 42 votes
• Alexander Hold: 25 votes
• Engelbert Sonneborn: 10 votes
• Abstained: 103 votes
• Dr. Frank-Walter Steinmeier: 931 votes

All in all, 1253 votes were cast. 631 votes were needed to be elected, which means that Dr. Steinmeier was elected on the first ballot.

The President-Elect then addressed the Convention himself. He talked about how a young Tunisian women told him that Germany's history inspired hope in her. The fact that Germany managed to move from a cruel inhuman regime to a stable and respected Democracy gave her hope that her country would be able to move there as well. He talked about how our democracy is built on a strong foundation and that in times where that foundation is shaking in other countries we must stick to ours even more. He talked about how we should invest in Freedom and Democracy and a united Europe. He closed with th remark that we need to be courageous. If we are courageous, he has no fears about the future.

Both Mr. Lammert and Mr. Steinmeier used their speeches to thank the sitting President Gauck for his service. The President-Elect will take office on March 18th.

I'm very interested to know how this election was covered in other nation's media (or if it was covered at all), so I would like to ask you to give me a quick summary of what you heard about this election in your country's media.

[Witchcraft and Sorcery]

I am as well actually. I haven't really had a chance to look at news relating to this but I'll have a chance this afternoon and write a little something about it.

[Hahiha / USSR]

Feb 12, 2017 10:49:21 GMT -5 Louisistan said:

Thanks for your participation, Witchcraft and Sorcery . I'm currently very busy at work, so I appreciate you keeping everyone up to date

The 16th Federal Convention met in Berlin today to elect the 12th Federal President. The Convention was chaired by Norbert Lammert (CDU), the President of the Federal Diet. As is tradition, he used his opening remarks not only to address the Convention, but also to talk about the current state of politics in Germany and the world. For example he warned of the negative consequences of protectionism. He warned that if you announce that you're putting your country first others will do the same with their country. He reminded us that there are problems that nationstates are unable to tackle by themselves.

The Convention then proceeded to cast the first ballot, yielding the following results:

• Invalid ballots: 14
  
• Prof. Dr. Christoph Butterwegge (Die Linke): 128 votes
  
• Albrecht Glaser: 42 votes
• Alexander Hold: 25 votes
• Engelbert Sonneborn: 10 votes
• Abstained: 103 votes
• Dr. Frank-Walter Steinmeier: 931 votes

All in all, 1253 votes were cast. 631 votes were needed to be elected, which means that Dr. Steinmeier was elected on the first ballot.

The President-Elect then addressed the Convention himself. He talked about how a young Tunisian women told him that Germany's history inspired hope in her. The fact that Germany managed to move from a cruel inhuman regime to a stable and respected Democracy gave her hope that her country would be able to move there as well. He talked about how our democracy is built on a strong foundation and that in times where that foundation is shaking in other countries we must stick to ours even more. He talked about how we should invest in Freedom and Democracy and a united Europe. He closed with th remark that we need to be courageous. If we are courageous, he has no fears about the future.

Both Mr. Lammert and Mr. Steinmeier used their speeches to thank the sitting President Gauck for his service. The President-Elect will take office on March 18th.

I'm very interested to know how this election was covered in other nation's media (or if it was covered at all), so I would like to ask you to give me a quick summary of what you heard about this election in your country's media.

We're too busy Trump-bashing where I live.

[Witchcraft and Sorcery]

Speaking of Trump-bashing, Steinmeier has done some of that. The English-language media is having a field day with him and highlighting some of his differences with Merkel. I think it's interesting that they focus so much on that - really highlights the willingness of American media particularly to polarize the differences even more.

www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-germany-president-20170212-story.html

[Witchcraft and Sorcery]

And to that once more, back to the election for chancellor:

www.cnbc.com/2017/02/13/germanys-election-campaign-heats-up-as-merkel-loses-ground-to-socialist.html

I love how the American media calls the SPD "socialists." They did the same thing with Bernie Sanders. Social democracy is not socialism. But America believes it is.

[Tanzoria]

Feb 13, 2017 13:44:51 GMT -5 Witchcraft and Sorcery said:

And to that once more, back to the election for chancellor:

www.cnbc.com/2017/02/13/germanys-election-campaign-heats-up-as-merkel-loses-ground-to-socialist.html

I love how the American media calls the SPD "socialists." They did the same thing with Bernie Sanders. Social democracy is not socialism. But America believes it is.

Well Sanders himself claimed to be a socialist. I don't know whether he did that just to get attention or he legitimately did not know the difference between socialism and social democracy

[Hahiha / USSR]

Feb 15, 2017 19:55:37 GMT -5 Tanzoria said:

Feb 13, 2017 13:44:51 GMT -5 Witchcraft and Sorcery said:

And to that once more, back to the election for chancellor:

www.cnbc.com/2017/02/13/germanys-election-campaign-heats-up-as-merkel-loses-ground-to-socialist.html

I love how the American media calls the SPD "socialists." They did the same thing with Bernie Sanders. Social democracy is not socialism. But America believes it is.

Well Sanders himself claimed to be a socialist. I don't know whether he did that just to get attention or he legitimately did not know the difference between socialism and social democracy

I think he was trying to appeal to the younger generation of voters who generally align themselves as far left. As an American youth myself I can attest that many do claim to be communists.

[Tuga Nation's Dragon]

Feb 12, 2017 10:49:21 GMT -5 Louisistan said:

Thanks for your participation, Witchcraft and Sorcery . I'm currently very busy at work, so I appreciate you keeping everyone up to date

The 16th Federal Convention met in Berlin today to elect the 12th Federal President. The Convention was chaired by Norbert Lammert (CDU), the President of the Federal Diet. As is tradition, he used his opening remarks not only to address the Convention, but also to talk about the current state of politics in Germany and the world. For example he warned of the negative consequences of protectionism. He warned that if you announce that you're putting your country first others will do the same with their country. He reminded us that there are problems that nationstates are unable to tackle by themselves.

The Convention then proceeded to cast the first ballot, yielding the following results:

• Invalid ballots: 14
  
• Prof. Dr. Christoph Butterwegge (Die Linke): 128 votes
  
• Albrecht Glaser: 42 votes
• Alexander Hold: 25 votes
• Engelbert Sonneborn: 10 votes
• Abstained: 103 votes
• Dr. Frank-Walter Steinmeier: 931 votes

All in all, 1253 votes were cast. 631 votes were needed to be elected, which means that Dr. Steinmeier was elected on the first ballot.

The President-Elect then addressed the Convention himself. He talked about how a young Tunisian women told him that Germany's history inspired hope in her. The fact that Germany managed to move from a cruel inhuman regime to a stable and respected Democracy gave her hope that her country would be able to move there as well. He talked about how our democracy is built on a strong foundation and that in times where that foundation is shaking in other countries we must stick to ours even more. He talked about how we should invest in Freedom and Democracy and a united Europe. He closed with th remark that we need to be courageous. If we are courageous, he has no fears about the future.

Both Mr. Lammert and Mr. Steinmeier used their speeches to thank the sitting President Gauck for his service. The President-Elect will take office on March 18th.

I'm very interested to know how this election was covered in other nation's media (or if it was covered at all), so I would like to ask you to give me a quick summary of what you heard about this election in your country's media.

Sorry, Louisistan, but even here in Portugal Trump is monopolizing all media... Is Trump did this, wants to build that or to ban those... also, we are in the middle of some important political discussions, so no coverage whatsoever...

[Tanzoria]

yep hasn't exactly permeated the public consciousness over here either

[Tanzoria]

is this still happening?

[Louisistan]

Yes, I'm just taking a short break, whilst dealing with some more stuff at work. There's going to be a state legislature election this month, so we're going to take a closer look at the only German State ever to field its own olympic team: The Saarland.

[Louisistan]

Apologies for my prolonged absence from this classroom. My work schedule was a bit more ... erratic than usual.

We've still got two weeks to go until the state legislature elections in Saarland, so let's get a quick overview of the system, a current poll and of course the Saarland itself.

Disregarding the three "city states" (Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen) Saarland is Germany's smallest state with only 2,570 square kilometeres and ca. 998,000 inhabitants. Historically, the area has been exploited for it's coal and thus, had large-scale industry. Prior to the establishment of the Territory of the Saar Basin by the League of Nations under the Treaty of Versailles in 1920, the area belonged to Bavaria and Prussia. The Territory was under occupation by the U.K. and France, but voted to rejoin the German Empire in a referendum in 1935. After WW II the territory was again put under French occupation (separate from the other German occupatipon zones). In 1955, another Referendum was held and again, the region was unified with (West) Germany.

Like in most of the German states, the state legislature is called the Landtag. Usually, the strongest party in the legislature comes together with others to form a coalition that has a majority of votes in the legislature. The Ministerpräsident, who is both Head of State and Government, is elected by the Landtags and appoints the Ministers of the State Government. Currently, the Ministerpräsidentin of the Saarland is Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU). Mrs. Kramp-Karrenbauer heads a "great coalition" of CDU and SPD. The legislature is elected every five years.

The legislature has 51 seats, which are awarded after an election as follows: The state is divided into three electoral districts. In each district, the parties nominate a list of candidates. Additionally, each party also nominates a statewide list of candidates. After the election the portion of seats to be awarded to a party is calculated using Jefferson's method (in Germany better known as the d'Hondt Verfahren). We will look at that method in more detail in a later class. Suffice it to say that this method yields a number of seats to be awarded to each party. Using the same method, 41 seats are awarded to candidates from the district lists according to the results from that district. The remaining seats are filled with candidates from the statewide lists. While this may seem complicated it guarantuees both a proportional representation of the votes and local representation.

Currently, the following parties are represented in the legislature: CDU, SPD, Die Linke, Piraten and Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen. Since we covered all these parties already, I won't go too much into details there. The Pirate Party has slipped below the 1% mark and thus is unlikely to return into the legislature. The AfD on the other hand may make it into the Saarland's legislature for the first time.

I found two relatively recent polls, one by Forsa (March 9th) and one by INSA (March 7th):

	CDU	SPD	Grüne	FDP	Linke	AfD	Others
Forsa	34%	33%	5%	4%	13%	6%	5%
INSA	36%	33%	4%	4%	12%	7%	4%

This is the first election since the SPD announced Martin Schulz as their nominee for Chancellor for the upcoming Federal election and they've been gaining momentum ever since, it will be interesting to see how this translates to the state election. Likewise, the AfD's numbers have been slipping as of late, so that's another thing to watch.

[Baden-Wuerttemberg]

Yes, Saarland, although numerically small, is going to be pretty interesting, both in terms of what the larger and what the smaller parties are currently doing.

Our term 'Große Koalition' for a coalition of two large parties, such as CDU and SPD, is usually translated into English as 'Grand coalition'. (Where the term 'grand' does not imply any value judgement, it merely refers to strength in numbers.)

Rather unusual constellation in German politics still today: In Saarland both SPD and CDU are going into the race with women as candidates to become Ministerpräsidentin. Incumbent Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU); Anke Rehlinger (SPD) who is currently heading the Saarland Ministry of Economy, Labour, Energy and Transport.

[Louisistan]

Exit polls are in




So the head-to-head race that was predicted between SPD and CDU obviously did not happen. CDU is firmly in the lead on this one. The AfD is almost certainly in. There's hope for the Greens yet, as these exit polls are a bit imprecise.

[Louisistan]

Preliminary End Results:

CDU: 40.7% (+5.5)
SPD: 29.6% (-1.0)
Left: 12.9% (-3.2)
Greens: 4.0% (-1.0)
FDP: 3.3% (+2.1)
Pirates: 0.7% (-6.7)
AfD: 6.2% (+6.2)
Others: 2.6% (-1.9)


CDU: 24 Seats
SPD: 17 Seats
Lefts: 7 Seats
AfD: 3 Seats


Since a coalition of SPD/Left/AfD is out of the question, due to the AfD being right-wing and neither AfD nor the Left would enter a coalition with CDU this will most definitly mean that the Grand Coalition in the Saarland will continue.

[Ater Nox]

A fair bit of a swing to the right there, which isn't too surprising IMO.

How'd the election go compared to the previous polling? I know the US one was a bit of a shock.

Where do you think the Pirate party voters have moved to? I don't imagine that they'd be the majority voting for the AfD, so has there been a move back to the major parties?

[Louisistan]

Mar 27, 2017 6:02:50 GMT -5 Ater Nox said:

A fair bit of a swing to the right there, which isn't too surprising IMO.

How'd the election go compared to the previous polling? I know the US one was a bit of a shock.

Where do you think the Pirate party voters have moved to? I don't imagine that they'd be the majority voting for the AfD, so has there been a move back to the major parties?

The polling expected the race between SPD and CDU to be much closer. Since the nomination of Schulz as the nominee for chancellor the SPD has polled a lot better, especially on a federal level. But that doesn't always translate well into state politics and apparently their boost in deferal popularity didn't help them here. I guess for the other parties, polling was more or less accurate.

I was looking if I could find some statistic of where the Pirate voters went. But because they did so poorly this time they get subsumed under "other parties" in that kind of statisti, so it' hard to tell. But I agree that most Pirate voters probably didn't swing towards AfD, so I'd expect them to wander back to more established parties, yes. Fun fact: Even the Familien-Partei Deutschlands (Family Party of Germany), which has no political relevance whatsoever, did better than the Pirates. The only reason the Pirates were even listed separately in some statistics is that they were in the last legislature.

[Tanzoria]

So...

[Louisistan]

Yeah... I kinda got busy

I'll see if I can give you an update on the weekend.

[Baden-Wuerttemberg]

For people who can read German, it's possible to compare one's stances on particular questions with official stances of the political parties, and check each overlap. This information is provided by the political parties themselves to the Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung (Federal Agency for Civic Education). It's also possible to doubly weigh the questions one considers particularly important.

32 von 33 Parteien haben die Wahl-O-Mat-Thesen beantwortet. Jetzt sind Sie an der Reihe: Vergleichen Sie Ihre Standpunkte mit den Antworten der Parteien. Der Wahl-O-Mat ist keine Wahlempfehlung, sondern ein Informationsangebot über Wahlen und Politik.

English Translation: 32 of 33 political parties have provided replies to the Wahl-o-Mat theses. Now it's your turn: Compare your own positions to the parties' replies. The Wahl-O-Mat is not a recommendation to vote a certain way; it is an offer of information about elections and politics.

www.wahl-o-mat.de/bundestagswahl2017/


(I've already voted by postal vote, by which I'm following an increasing trend of more postal voters every election.)

[Tanzoria]

So after the election result seems the most likely government will be a CDU/FDP/Greens alliance. This seems completely unworkable. Is there any chance of this Government existing for a full four year term?

[Baden-Wuerttemberg]

With regard to their respective programmes, yes, the three of them seem hardly compatible on a number of issues. But after the election is not before the election. I shouldn't be too surprised if 'Jamaica' (CDU/FDP/Greens) worked out a way of sharing power on the federal level for four years. What they'd actually do with that power... anyone's guess.

[Ater Nox]

If they don't come to an agreement do you go back to the polls?

[Baden-Wuerttemberg]

My guess would be: None of the parties in any position to negotiate forming a government now can count on ending up in a much better position after a repeat election (with possibly lower voter turnout). They'd probably all be smarter to work with what they've got.

[Louisistan]

While so far, public debate still ignores this option, a minority government is also possible.

[Tanzoria]

Sept 28, 2017 13:29:53 GMT -5 Louisistan said:

While so far, public debate still ignores this option, a minority government is also possible.

I know this is a massive gravedig, but I was just re-reading this thread and this interested me. Minority government is quite common in Westminister systems, so why then do German parties insist on going into formal coalition rather than just providing confidence to a minority government?