WW67: Jon Snow and the Night's Watch

[Louisistan]

Not that I'm not wary of Aerso. But Aerso isn't playing this one, guys. He's backup.
Otherwise I would've thought you guys where already concocting a narrative to have him lynched early

[Tuga Nation's Dragon]

We were just giving some insight of the game to Valars...

[Inquista]

As a new arrival to the region, I appreciate the insight too.

[Sauron]

I'm always very easy to read when I'm wolf 😂 which doesn't make me that effective. But I'm a handy villager to have around

[Louisistan]

May 22, 2020 6:22:01 GMT -5 Sauron said:

I'm always very easy to read when I'm wolf 😂

That's quite the claim considering the Aerso-Quote in your signature.

[Marxist Germany]

Night 1 ends

Actions:
Krystalveil has been killed. He was Dolorus Edd, a Night's Watch ranger.

Day 2 begins...

[Palman]

Okay, well, not the best or worst role to lose by any team's standards. Unfortunately, it doesn't tell us much. Krystalveil didn't really interact with anyone, except when Louis reminded them to bold their vote so it would be counted, but I'd like to think any of us would do that, especially when it was a no lynch vote.

I'd love to hear if anyone has any suggestions of who seems suspicious, but I stick by my night time (well technically the last couple minutes of day phase) post pointing out that Haivon showed up, but did nothing other than say Hi. That's not out of suspicion, just we need to start somewhere and with little to go on, I am inclined, as previously noted, to target those who are least contributory/active.

[Ayunli]

No ideas yet, but somewhat curious why the Wildlings targeted a WW noob...

[Sauron]

May 22, 2020 13:18:45 GMT -5 Palman said:

Okay, well, not the best or worst role to lose by any team's standards. Unfortunately, it doesn't tell us much. Krystalveil didn't really interact with anyone, except when Louis reminded them to bold their vote so it would be counted, but I'd like to think any of us would do that, especially when it was a no lynch vote.

I'd love to hear if anyone has any suggestions of who seems suspicious, but I stick by my night time (well technically the last couple minutes of day phase) post pointing out that Haivon showed up, but did nothing other than say Hi. That's not out of suspicion, just we need to start somewhere and with little to go on, I am inclined, as previously noted, to target those who are least contributory/active.

Definitely target the ones who are contributing the least is the way to go. I think we should also be building some kind of voting record as well. This will make it easier later in the game when we have more information

[Tuga Nation's Dragon]

I usually start the debate by "targeting" the innactive players, but I don't think that happened in the previous day phase... Having said that, there's Haivon's situation as explained by Palman, but to be fair, voting no lynch or no voting at all was the same... And Haivon indeed said something in the game thread, nothing helpful yes, but after all no one else did...

I have to say, and maybe because this is very fresh in my mind (it was the last WW game, after all), Ayunli did say exactly the same in the last game, always referring to herself as a noob and, in the end, she was a wolf and won the game... Sure, there was a lot of Aerso's leadership in it, but still...
Usually new players ask questions during the game like Valars did, I also did the same when I started playing... I never saw Ayunli doing it, so she might be asking those questions in other channels, like the wolves' PM... Again, she could have done it last game because she was a wolf alongside Aerso, she might not be one now and not doing so as well...

Ayunli, just want to hear from you if I'm correct on this... I won't vote for anyone for the time being, as we don't have much to go on...

I also would like to hear some thoughts from Louisistan and Control... And, well, anybody else for that matter...

[Ayunli]

Tuga Nation's Dragon, I went through all of my posts from last game (WW66), and the closest I find to me saying I'm a noob is when I said "It's not like I'm known to be some great strategist or anything"...which I'm not (at least not compared to Aerso). In fact, I was the one doing the lists all the time of what players/roles were left. I attempted to get serious for once, by having my own google doc of notes (which turned out to work great, so I think I'll do that for this and other future games).

[Musketoon]

I can keep a voting record and post it daily (or nightly whatever would be most helpful). The chat's are still there to in case anyone thinks I'm switching anything.

Voting wise I see no real reason to vote for Havion as the innos outnumber evils 10:2 making it far more likely for an inno to get killed. I understand the rational to lynch inactive's in some cases but with a ratio like that it feels unnecessary. I'd rather just wait another night and see if anything substantial comes out

[Louisistan]

May 22, 2020 14:01:37 GMT -5 Tuga Nation's Dragon said:

I also would like to hear some thoughts from Louisistan and Control... And, well, anybody else for that matter...

I'd prefer to wait until night phase is over.

[Tuga Nation's Dragon]

May 22, 2020 16:03:11 GMT -5 Louisistan said:

May 22, 2020 14:01:37 GMT -5 Tuga Nation's Dragon said:

I also would like to hear some thoughts from Louisistan and Control... And, well, anybody else for that matter...

I'd prefer to wait until night phase is over.

well, it is over...

[Tuga Nation's Dragon]

May 22, 2020 15:54:30 GMT -5 Ayunli said:

Tuga Nation's Dragon, I went through all of my posts from last game (WW66), and the closest I find to me saying I'm a noob is when I said "It's not like I'm known to be some great strategist or anything"...which I'm not (at least not compared to Aerso). In fact, I was the one doing the lists all the time of what players/roles were left. I attempted to get serious for once, by having my own google doc of notes (which turned out to work great, so I think I'll do that for this and other future games).

fair enough, I thought you said it more often, but I assume when I'm mistaken... And it's true, you made those lists, I truly forgot that... My apologies, milady

[Tuga Nation's Dragon]

May 22, 2020 15:56:02 GMT -5 Musketoon said:

I can keep a voting record and post it daily (or nightly whatever would be most helpful). The chat's are still there to in case anyone thinks I'm switching anything.

Voting wise I see no real reason to vote for Havion as the innos outnumber evils 10:2 making it far more likely for an inno to get killed. I understand the rational to lynch inactive's in some cases but with a ratio like that it feels unnecessary. I'd rather just wait another night and see if anything substantial comes out

well, if we wait just one more night the wolves will kill another player... And ratio will be 9:2... If we keep doing that, the wolves will necessarily win... The seer can build up an army, but the wolves can also build one reviving people from death... So we cannot take those who were killed out of the question! Actually, if we wait, they can kill a player a revive another... So it will be a 9:3 ratio, if I'm correct

I think in this set up, we really have to make some action during the day-phases, or the wolves will kill us and build an army without any effort... The only hope would be the seer scanning them before that happens...

[Eastern New England]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't you deemed inactive after two days of not posting? By the looks of it Haivon last posted a little over two days ago, so shouldn't he be replaced by one of the reserves?

[Marxist Germany]

May 22, 2020 16:59:03 GMT -5 Eastern New England said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't you deemed inactive after two days of not posting? By the looks of it Haivon last posted a little over two days ago, so shouldn't he be replaced by one of the reserves?

Correct, a replacement will be sought if Haivon doesn't respond to this warning in 12 hours.

[Inquista]

I'm also inclined to not lynch anyone, since we don't really have too much information (granted, I'm only just getting acquainted with people here). However, if we are going to lynch someone, then I agree that it should be somebody inactive.

[Haivon]

May 22, 2020 17:04:39 GMT -5 Marxist Germany said:

May 22, 2020 16:59:03 GMT -5 Eastern New England said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't you deemed inactive after two days of not posting? By the looks of it Haivon last posted a little over two days ago, so shouldn't he be replaced by one of the reserves?

Correct, a replacement will be sought if Haivon doesn't respond to this warning in 12 hours.

Sorry, I completely forgot about this. Pardon me. 

Anyway, Krystalveil was killed? Let's see how this goes. 

[Haivon]

May 22, 2020 16:50:52 GMT -5 Tuga Nation's Dragon said:

May 22, 2020 15:56:02 GMT -5 Musketoon said:

I can keep a voting record and post it daily (or nightly whatever would be most helpful). The chat's are still there to in case anyone thinks I'm switching anything.

Voting wise I see no real reason to vote for Havion as the innos outnumber evils 10:2 making it far more likely for an inno to get killed. I understand the rational to lynch inactive's in some cases but with a ratio like that it feels unnecessary. I'd rather just wait another night and see if anything substantial comes out

well, if we wait just one more night the wolves will kill another player... And ratio will be 9:2... If we keep doing that, the wolves will necessarily win... The seer can build up an army, but the wolves can also build one reviving people from death... So we cannot take those who were killed out of the question! Actually, if we wait, they can kill a player a revive another... So it will be a 9:3 ratio, if I'm correct

I think in this set up, we really have to make some action during the day-phases, or the wolves will kill us and build an army without any effort... The only hope would be the seer scanning them before that happens...

So everyone can be killed in a night? Well, the best we can do is wait. I for myself, after seeing this game and understanding it, didn't founded any tips. Or I'm just plain dumb.

[Tuga Nation's Dragon]

May 22, 2020 18:14:12 GMT -5 Haivon said:

May 22, 2020 16:50:52 GMT -5 Tuga Nation's Dragon said:

well, if we wait just one more night the wolves will kill another player... And ratio will be 9:2... If we keep doing that, the wolves will necessarily win... The seer can build up an army, but the wolves can also build one reviving people from death... So we cannot take those who were killed out of the question! Actually, if we wait, they can kill a player a revive another... So it will be a 9:3 ratio, if I'm correct

I think in this set up, we really have to make some action during the day-phases, or the wolves will kill us and build an army without any effort... The only hope would be the seer scanning them before that happens...

So everyone can be killed in a night? Well, the best we can do is wait. I for myself, after seeing this game and understanding it, didn't founded any tips. Or I'm just plain dumb.

Yes, the wolves can kill a person each night, and, if I'm correct, revive a dead player and turn them to their undead army... That's why not doing nothing doesn't seem a good strategy to me...

Marxist Germany, I thought the no-active rule was referring to 2 day-phases, but instead it's 2 real days, right?

[Palman]

May 22, 2020 15:56:02 GMT -5 Musketoon said:

I can keep a voting record and post it daily (or nightly whatever would be most helpful). The chat's are still there to in case anyone thinks I'm switching anything.

Voting wise I see no real reason to vote for Havion as the innos outnumber evils 10:2 making it far more likely for an inno to get killed. I understand the rational to lynch inactive's in some cases but with a ratio like that it feels unnecessary. I'd rather just wait another night and see if anything substantial comes out

Actually, you might have a real point here. As unusual as it may be, lynching someone today might actually not be the best plan...

If we lynch someone every day, starting today, there's about a 75.5% chance one of the kings wins, a 14.7% chance that the Nights Watch wins, and only 9.8% the Wildlings win.* If we hold off one more day, the kings only have a 64.1% chance of winning, 20.3% for the Nights Watch and the Wildlings at 15.6%. If we wait any longer than that though, the Wildlings start getting a significant upperhand owing to the number of undead they can raise in that time.

So actually, yeah. Vote: No Lynch Weird to do that on day two...



* I didn't account for the protection abilities, since they are statistically unlikely enough (when used blindly) that it would only change the odds a little, but in complicated to calculate ways. I also didn't adjust for the odds the Night watch recruiting all three kings. It's statically nearly impossible to pull off (slightly over 3%).

[Musketoon]

May 22, 2020 16:50:52 GMT -5 Tuga Nation's Dragon said:

May 22, 2020 15:56:02 GMT -5 Musketoon said:

The seer can build up an army, but the wolves can also build one reviving people from death... So we cannot take those who were killed out of the question! Actually, if we wait, they can kill a player a revive another... So it will be a 9:3 ratio, if I'm correct

You're right. Totally forgot that they could revive people

[Control]

The Night's Watch should want to not lynch so they can have another night for the seer to check someone and recruit them; an army of four is a good base to set up before we start fishing for Wildlings. I don't think it gives the Wildlings that much of an advantage because we're completely shooting in the dark at this point and we're more likely to lynch a member of the Watch than anything else.
The Wildlings should be okay with not lynching because they can still kill and raise at night and so don't need to lynch at this point, but they might still try to lynch because every dead person is a step towards victory. The only ones that really want to lynch at this point are the Kings as they have no other way of killing the other kings.

The best move for a Night's Watch is to Vote: No Lynch.

[Haivon]

May 22, 2020 18:39:04 GMT -5 Tuga Nation's Dragon said:

May 22, 2020 18:14:12 GMT -5 Haivon said:

So everyone can be killed in a night? Well, the best we can do is wait. I for myself, after seeing this game and understanding it, didn't founded any tips. Or I'm just plain dumb.

Yes, the wolves can kill a person each night, and, if I'm correct, revive a dead player and turn them to their undead army... That's why not doing nothing doesn't seem a good strategy to me...

Marxist Germany , I thought the no-active rule was referring to 2 day-phases, but instead it's 2 real days, right?

Now I understand how this game works. Whoah, first there were werewolves, and now zombies.

WE ARE SCREWED

[Musketoon]

I will be sticking with what I said at the beginning of the day and will be Voting: No Lynch

[Haivon]

May 22, 2020 19:13:52 GMT -5 Control said:

The Night's Watch should want to not lynch so they can have another night for the seer to check someone and recruit them; an army of four is a good base to set up before we start fishing for Wildlings. I don't think it gives the Wildlings that much of an advantage because we're completely shooting in the dark at this point and we're more likely to lynch a member of the Watch than anything else.
The Wildlings should be okay with not lynching because they can still kill and raise at night and so don't need to lynch at this point, but they might still try to lynch because every dead person is a step towards victory. The only ones that really want to lynch at this point are the Kings as they have no other way of killing the other kings.

The best move for a Night's Watch is to Vote: No Lynch.

I will vote No Lynch too. 

[Musketoon]

May 22, 2020 19:36:58 GMT -5 Haivon said:

I will vote No Lynch too. 

you forgot to bold your vote

[Ayunli]

Since it does seem to be advantageous for the Night's Watch, I will Vote: No Lynch. Hopefully Night 2 will provide more clues to everything.