4 polls released before the election

[Mutanatia]

Welcome to News and Current Events 301! For this week, we will cover five polls as covered by Gallup.

This Unit is the Gallup Poll unit. It will deal with 5 polls that helped influence political events this year. In addition, there is a Gallup Event on “Religion, Wellbeing, and Health.”

For Gallup, the months of August and October were the strongest for polls that described the political landscape:
1) Approval Rating of Congress
2) A description what a “likely voter” is
3) Initial reactions to Paul Ryan
4) Americans’ Top Priorities for the next President.

(The above in is addition to the religion coverage)

We will go in order as the above.

Americans’ Views of Congress Revert to All-Time Low
Link: www.gallup.com/video/156722/americans-views-congress-revert-time-low.aspx


August 16th, 2012: Just about three months before the election, Gallup Poll released their date on approval ratings for Congress. Keeping in mind the recent elections, answer these questions.


Discussion:
1) In what other month had the lowest approval rating been reached?
2) What is the percentage of people that approve of Congress?
3) Where has Congressional Approval typically averaged?
4) When was the high point of Congressional approval? What event happened then? Was it an outlier?
5) Knowing this, would you have advised Romney to pick Paul Ryan as a running mate?

Long Question: Keeping in mind the results of the Congressional elections this year, is the result surprising? Why or why not?

Election Matters: The Lowdown on Likely Voters
Link: www.gallup.com/video/157943/election-matters-lowdown-likely-voters.aspx

October 8th, 2012: Election Matters is a segment that Gallup runs every election and explains the different issues in play for the different candidates. This episode, they discussed “likely voters.” Likely voters are not the demographic of all of those who like a candidate, but instead are those that Gallup deems most likely to show up and vote on election day.

Discussion:
1) What did the poll about the first (Presidential) debate say?
2) What group did Obama still have a favorable lead for (Registered or likely)?
3) Who does better amongst likely voters?
4) Why did they think the election was too close to call?

Long Question: Keeping in mind the results of the election, the outcome of certain states, the outcome in certain swing states, AND the way in which they were first projected on media news outlets, are you surprised that the election turned out the way it did?

Election Matters: Americans’ Initial Reactions to Paul Ryan
Link: www.gallup.com/video/156659/election-matters-americans-initial-reactions-paul-ryan.aspx

August 14th, 2012: The American public is introduced to Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney’s running mate as Vice President in the Presidential election. Gallup reported their initial findings on this edition of Election Matters.

Discussion:
1) What was the American public’s initial reaction to Paul Ryan?
2) How does this compare to Sarah Palin’s reaction?
3) Did the choice more Americans more or less likely to vote Republican?
4) Why is Paul Ryan running for the state different than voting for him for the House?

Long Question: Considering the American public’s reactions… do you think Paul Ryan was a good pick as the Republican Vice-Presidential candidate?


Americans’ Top Priorities for the Next President
August 2, 2012: Gallup Poll releases what Americans think are the top priorities for the Next President.
Link: www.gallup.com/video/156407/americans-top-priorities-next-president.aspx


Discussion:
1) What was the top priority?
2) What was the next one?
3) Considering how many people wanted to restore Medicare, was it still a good pick for Paul Ryan as running mate?
4) How many people considered global warming to be a top priority? What about taxes on the wealthy?


Long Question: Considering the top (And lower) priorities mentioned, who had the most priorities in common with the American people? Did the outcome of the popular vote surprise you at the end of the election?

[Anime Daisuki]

Seeing how the election went, perhaps Romney might have been better off picking a running mate from Ohio or Florida. The top question on my mind is how long Ryan would last, will he be the nex t candidate in 2016 or go away like Palin.

[Walabamba]

Ryan might run in 2016 but I highly doubt that he'll win nomination. I suspect that we'll see a Bush/Rubio ticket coming out of 2016 republican nominations.

[Mutanatia]

What I noticed was the following:
1) Congressional approval at 10% -- Ryan was a Congressman
2) Ryan was announced during the Olympics -- most people had no idea who he was, and there wasn't even a bump
3) Ryan, a Congressman (and therefore transitively not approved of by 90% of voters) was from Wisconsin--he was a Representative and had never ran statewide in Wisconsin.
(Why choose Ryan then?)

4) Many states (including even GA) were originally reported as "too close to call." This aligns with the likely voter theory. Obama won the close-to-calls that mattered; Romney won those (like Georgia) that did not in the grand scheme of things.
(Something not factored in by pollsters)

5) 21% of Americans have global warming as their priority (remember the "The President wants to stop the rising of the tides" line in the convention) AND 21% want to raise taxes on the rich as their top priority. This means that Romney turned off 42% of the American people--or at least did not jibe with their priorities.
(Romney was already fighting an uphill battle; Obama only needed 9% of the rest of America to win the POPULAR vote)

Did anyone else see this, or was it just me?

[New Rogernomics]

I am interested about the Presidential race after Obama. Hillary Clinton is a likely contender, and I suspect if she ran it would be fairly easy for her to snap the Presidency off any potential Republican challenger as of now (unlike the Republican challengers she has a big public profile, plenty of potential backers and a good campaign infrastructure from when she took on Obama).

[Nigerian Kenya]

Keeping in mind the results of the Congressional elections this year, is the result surprising? Why or why not?
Yes. Voters were disappointed with the 112th congress, and the 113th is essentially the same. Republican House, Democractic Senate.

Keeping in mind the results of the election, the outcome of certain states, the outcome in certain swing states, AND the way in which they were first projected on media news outlets, are you surprised that the election turned out the way it did?
Yes and No. I am not suprised that Obama won, he spent most of the time ahead in the polls, and even when behind, it was only by 1-3 points. Obama had the popularity among minorities, the popular views on certain issues, and the ability to care about all voters and release tax returns, that Romney simply didn't have. Romney also put too much focus on typical blue states (Michigan, Minnesota, Pennslyvania, Wisconsin) that should have been focused on a few not-so-blue states (Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada) instead.

However, I am suprised that Obama won Virginia and Florida. My prediction for this election was 290-248, with Obama winning. I figured that with the economic situation this world is facing, Romney considering those two states a sure win, and the fact that Virginia and Florida are more red then they are blue, and judging that Obama would probably focus more on states where he had more of a chance and/or were small enough to not cost a fortune to campaign in (Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, and possibly Nevada), due to the fact that the Obama Campaign, in contrast to the Romney Campaign, did not receive any funding from a PAC. Fortunately, Obama recieved so much in campaign donations that that factor didn't really even come into play.

P.S. Kudos to the media for giving each candidate the lead 2 times on election night. For anyone who didn't watch, the way the electoral votes were announced last election, Romney started with the lead, then Obama surged ahead, then Romney took the lead again, and then Obama took the win. It made it somewhat suspenseful and not boring to watch.

Considering the American public’s reactions… do you think Paul Ryan was a good pick as the Republican Vice-Presidential candidate?

No. He wasn't a Sarah Palin, but he didn't help out much. Wisconsin had little chance of being carried by Romney at all times, it was actually a leaning obama state during the summer prior to the election; even when it was put to toss-up, Obama was still obviously going to win it, going by polls and whatnot. And Ryan obviously didn't help out in more crucial states like Florida, Virginia, or Ohio either. Romney did better than McCain in those three states, but obviously it wasn't enough to win. Although he did nearly win Florida. But, sorry, Romney, nearly win just isn't enough.

Portman, Rubio, and especially Christie, would all have been better choices, and would either have made the election closer on election night, or given Romney the win.

Considering the top (And lower) priorities mentioned, who had the most priorities in common with the American people? Did the outcome of the popular vote surprise you at the end of the election?
Obama, though only slightly. The popular vote did not suprise me. In this country, with only three exceptions, two of which happened over a hundred years ago, the winner of the electoral vote also wins the popular vote.

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An interesting note: If the electoral votes had been allocated by district rather than by state, as some Republicans want, Romney would have won. Just putting that out there.