An Obama Presidency

[Mukeli]

Now we can have an intelligent debate on what an Obama presidency would look like.

My brief thoughts on the matter:

- Greater regulation of the financial markets that will entail some sort of cap on executive pay and benefits (I guess around $30M/year total package).

- Slightly higher taxes on the wealthiest Americans. (He'll have to be careful though because wealthy Americans donate to campaigns.)

- Establish diplomatic relations with Iran and North Korea.

- Withdraw a bulk of forces in Iraq and move them to Afghanistan.

- His plans for healthcare will either fail or be put on the back burner after re-election.

- The economy will improve during his term due to the cyclical nature of economics.

[Estayland]

My thoughts on the financial and economic consequences of an Obama presidency:

- More jobs will go overseas because of the increase in taxes on corporations and wealthy

- More corporations will expatriate if the cap on executive pay is enacted

- Average unemployment will be 1-2% above Bush administration averages

- Tax revenues will decrease while spending will increase

[Bad Infinitum]

Oct 27, 2008 10:11:43 GMT -5 Estayland said:

- Tax revenues will decrease while spending will increase

I'm not sure about that. It looks like Obama's going to do everything he can to get out of Iraq. The war in Iraq is far more expensive than the war in Afghanistan, and re-allocating soldiers to Afghanistan will not only relieve thousands of troops of their deployment, but will also open up billions of dollars in federal funding. This funding can either be cut from the budget to help put a dent in the growing national debt, or it can be redistributed to something that actually helps Americans, like education or health care.

Either way, the economy's going to improve. At the market's current state, it doesn't have a choice.

[Anime Daisuki]

I'll only comment on foreign policy:

Under Obama, wars are less likely. Confrontations are also less likely.

Under McCain, new wars and confrontations are more likely. He has already explicitely stated he wants to kick out Russia and humiliate China by excluding from the G-8, and also form a new "League of Democracies". These actions would 1) Undermine the U.N. and 2) Create a new atmosphere of "us versus them" and return us to the cold war.

[New Dracora]

From a non-american's point of view, a list of assumptions and hopes:

- Being able to talk about the US without cringing or cracking a joke

- Improved foreign relations with the US on the assumption new administration will be far less arrogant

- Lowering of global tensions that have caused some of the uncertainity that is adding fuel to the flames of the global economic down turn in the assumption new administration will far less trigger happy and a lot more open to foreign affairs (rather than foreign threats)


Just to name a few....

[Chronopolice]

If Obama sticks to his words if he gets elected to the US Presidency, I see improvements of the stature and prestige of the USA.

I would like to see the United States take the lead again in world affairs.

The United States is a rare kind of superpower you'll see in history.

[Greek People Nation (GPN)]

Don't forget, A big Cut in the military. Funding going down jobs being lost.

Sorry , I do not think Obama will do anything good for this country.

[The United Antarctic]

Oct 28, 2008 8:29:03 GMT -5 Chronopolice said:

If Obama sticks to his words if he gets elected to the US Presidency, I see improvements of the stature and prestige of the USA.

I would like to see the United States take the lead again in world affairs.

The United States is a rare kind of superpower you'll see in history.

The United States is the second democratic super power and the first truly democratic superpower

But, if Obama wins, then the United States economy will grow worse. The way to more tax revenues is to not raise taxes, but raise GDP, as the tax revenues as a percentage of GDP is pegged at 19.5% (I have a source is you need it). Rasing taxes on the rich will do nothing but cause higher unemployment as the rich control most of the jobs in America, they are the businessmen and manufacturers.

His windfall profits tax on oil companies won't work too, as the oil company's will raise the price of gasoline, which will negate the money gained by his stimulus package.

I'm afraid that Obama will win, however. But, if Obama wins in 08, the Republicans will win in 12.

[Twobagger]

Why are we measuring taxes as a percentage of GDP rather than as a percentage of income, if we pay income taxes and not GDP taxes?
I agree with you that it seems like a poor move to drastically increase taxes on the corporations that provide necessary items, because this causes those corporations to increase prices to cover their "losses."

[Mukeli]

Oct 28, 2008 9:59:46 GMT -5 Greek People Nation (GPN) said:

Don't forget, A big Cut in the military.

I don't foresee a large cut in military spending. Maybe in some of the developmental programs but the armed forces are in need of replacements.

- The refueling tankers currently in use by the U.S. military are over 50 years old. The contract is worth a projected $35B.

- The Air Force is looking for a combat, search, and rescue (CSAR) helicopter worth a projected $13B.

- Army needs to replace aging Chinooks. Recently Boeing was awarded a $4B contract for 181 planes.

- Pentagon is looking to launch a competition for a Humvee replacement worth $40B.

- Air Force is trying to extend the F-22 product line after initial procurement was cut from 390 to 180.

These are only the tip of the iceberg. Obama will not want to cut these acquisitions as they are needed just to maintain current capabilities.

[Petalumadom]

- Greater regulation of the financial markets that will entail some sort of cap on executive pay and benefits (I guess around $30M/year total package).

The president nor anyone has the power to "cap" what an individual can earn... However he can have a cap of this added to the bailout plan... with that being a condition of the company receiving aid.

- Slightly higher taxes on the wealthiest Americans. (He'll have to be careful though because wealthy Americans donate to campaigns.)

I'm not really sure exactly how much he will be raising the higher tax brackets... and although reasonable rises are acceptable taxing the #*&$ out of the rich is an idiotic idea.

I'm ok with some tax hikes for the wealthy but it is stupid for him to allow the capital gains tax (I think that's the one) to go up. This tax ALWAYS gives the government more money when it's lowered. And it highly benefits the middle class (and anyone who invests in stocks). Obama plans on allowing the Bush tax lowering to sunset in 2010 or something... There is really no point in that unless he just likes to piss people off. It will in fact decrease the tax revenues from that source.

- Establish diplomatic relations with Iran and North Korea.

Sure... ok... The future of Iran will be quite interesting... I hope I'm wrong... but I'd wager we'll be forced into another war somewhere in the middle east... either Pakistan or Iran... but we'll see

- Withdraw a bulk of forces in Iraq and move them to Afghanistan.

I'm a lil afraid of this one. No matter how much you dislike the war in Iraq you started it... so you have to finish it... setting a definite time line would be stupid... though of course you can begin a systematic withdrawal. But you have to be ready to send them right back in if something happens. You cannot pull out until the Iraqi government is self sustaining. Pulling out prematurely will be a huge blunder.

- His plans for healthcare will either fail or be put on the back burner after re-election.

Yes, this is too much of a massive reform to take top priority for now.

Obama economy:

Ok, so what will happen economically? In my opinion we will come to a short time bottom pretty soon... Things will start to smooth out and we will possibly gain some ground. However... in the long run we are in store for a good 3-5 year period of side-ways movement or possibly sloping downward.

No matter what Obama does he cannot fix our problems overnight. And most things are not going to be in his hands. So basically we may have some good news in terms of the stock market in the coming months. But overall the US economy will be facing serious re-correction on a scale of the 1970s or 30s. When I say the 30s I'm not expecting massive un-employment although as mentioned it will probably be up a point or two... but the way America works needs to be changed. We are still a ginormous super power. But we can't eat up all the goods of the world forever.

[The United Antarctic]

Oct 28, 2008 15:16:00 GMT -5 Twobagger said:

Why are we measuring taxes as a percentage of GDP rather than as a percentage of income, if we pay income taxes and not GDP taxes?
I agree with you that it seems like a poor move to drastically increase taxes on the corporations that provide necessary items, because this causes those corporations to increase prices to cover their "losses."

Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP, not income. Tax revenue is the total amount the government gets, not the amount people pay.

[Shelter From The Storm]

It will be interesting to see if Obama can actually fix health care. It might be possible with a 60 seat Democratic Senate, but you know the extremely wealthy health insurance lobby will do everything in its power to subvert any substantial improvement to the health care system

[Petalumadom]

I just was on www.cbo.gov this afternoon and saw that they project healthcare spending to reach a Monstrous 12% of GDP.

Medicare and Medicaid are in even more trouble than social security. Those are the two main government healthcare things... and they're doing very poorly so far.

[Grub]

Under an Obama presidency, I see us pulling out of Iraq. I think the view of the rest of the world will be better than it is now. I also think Obama will go back on his tax pledge citing the economy or budget and the people/small businesses making under $250,000 won't see an increase in their taxes pledge will go out the window. I believe Obama will go back on his tax pledge.

[Estayland]

Oct 28, 2008 18:10:53 GMT -5 Petalumadom said:

- Greater regulation of the financial markets that will entail some sort of cap on executive pay and benefits (I guess around $30M/year total package).

The president nor anyone has the power to "cap" what an individual can earn... However he can have a cap of this added to the bailout plan... with that being a condition of the company receiving aid.

Please check out IRC section 162(m). Once CEOs are paid over $1 million, public companies do not get a deduction for the salary unless certain conditions are met. Then there's 280G, where corporations are denied "golden parachute" payment deductions unless certain conditions are met, and the earnings are taxed at an even higher rate.

[Shizensky]

Oct 28, 2008 10:28:07 GMT -5 The United Antarctic said:

Oct 28, 2008 8:29:03 GMT -5 Chronopolice said:

If Obama sticks to his words if he gets elected to the US Presidency, I see improvements of the stature and prestige of the USA.

I would like to see the United States take the lead again in world affairs.

The United States is a rare kind of superpower you'll see in history.

The United States is the second democratic super power and the first truly democratic superpower

Except that the US isn't truly a democracy in the first place.

[The United Antarctic]

Oct 31, 2008 0:27:09 GMT -5 Shizensky said:

Oct 28, 2008 10:28:07 GMT -5 The United Antarctic said:

The United States is the second democratic super power and the first truly democratic superpower

Except that the US isn't truly a democracy in the first place.

I meant democratic republic, not direct democracy.

[TheSensitiveNewAge]

I read in The Economist that both McCain and Obama want to increase numbers soldiers, in particular Army and Marines.

The Iraqi government is wanting the US to soon or now start a staged pullout. Taking American soldiers out of cities over time and end with just help with training of police and Iraqi soldiers. (There is also a move to be able to try US soldiers for crimes committed against Iraqis.)

As to increasing taxes on the top five percent, I do not see how that is going to hurt the US economy. Again, either The Economist or Newsweek or both was discussing how under Clinton the top five were being taxed more than they are now, but money-wise things were great back then.

Question: How small is a business that makes $250,000 a year in profit? My parents rent out three apartments in a college town and it pays the mortgage for the properties and we are not near $250,000. Furthermore, a lot of professors (and university types) do consulting work, and that work doesn't pay that well. Heck, I doubt most of the contractors and such in central PA make that much unless they are involved in building the developments or commercial buildings of State College or Altoona. If taxes for business making more than $250,000 in profit went up enough that they paid a couple (1-2,000) thousand extra, I have a hard time seeing how that will inhibit development in any appreciable way because these businesses are only small in comparison to GE or Sony.

[Fleeb]

I think you all are really very optimistic.

I don't think we can know what an Obama presidency will be like, because (1) he isn't sure himself (I hope!), (2) the press has completely defalcated on their duty to probe him, his policies, and his background, and (3) we don't really know who he takes his songs from, so we can't know his lyrics. That is to say, this has in many ways been a remarkably stealth candidacy, hidden in verbiage.

I hope you are right. I really pray you are right. But I have a really bad (read, Manchurian Candidate-like) feeling about this.

[Estayland]

Oct 31, 2008 11:33:31 GMT -5 TheSensitiveNewAge said:

As to increasing taxes on the top five percent, I do not see how that is going to hurt the US economy. Again, either The Economist or Newsweek or both was discussing how under Clinton the top five were being taxed more than they are now, but money-wise things were great back then.

One way companies decide whether to proceed with a project is expected cash flows or net present value calculations. Taxes are a huge part of the calculation of capital expenditures. If the rate of return is below their target, they will not proceed.

Question: How small is a business that makes $250,000 a year in profit?

It's quite small. You have to consider that to continue making profits, you have to reinvest your earnings into a company. Here is the SBA's standards list: www.sba.gov/idc/groups/public/documents/sba_homepage/serv_sstd_tablepdf.pdf. When you compare $250k to companies that are traded on stock exchanges, you'll see how they dwarf in comparison.

[Alfonia]

Oct 27, 2008 22:53:03 GMT -5 New Dracora said:

From a non-american's point of view, a list of assumptions and hopes:

- Being able to talk about the US without cringing or cracking a joke

- Improved foreign relations with the US on the assumption new administration will be far less arrogant

- Lowering of global tensions that have caused some of the uncertainity that is adding fuel to the flames of the global economic down turn in the assumption new administration will far less trigger happy and a lot more open to foreign affairs (rather than foreign threats)


Just to name a few....

I agree, but from a European's point of view I worry about Obama's Iraq policy. Iraq is a neighbouring country to Turkey, which I'd like to see in the european union; however a direct requirement for this is that they stop to abuse their ethnic minorities. If the USA leaves and Iraq breaks up or the situation worsens, god knows what will happen to Turkey, the kurds, and ultimately to europe. However much the USA likes to lose the Iraq war, I really hope they don't decide to do so. No one even touched this subject in Swedish media (or in european media in general I think), which is all about praising Obama right now. The republicans among you would cringe if you lived here

[Bad Infinitum]

Oct 31, 2008 23:47:24 GMT -5 Fleeb said:

I think you all are really very optimistic.

It scares me less to be blatantly optimistic about an Obama presidency than realistic about a McCain (and eventual Palin) presidency.

[TheSensitiveNewAge]

Estay,
I understand that a company that makes a little above $250,000 a year is still tiny compared to the likes of GE. What I don't understand is how the government taking a couple thousand more from profits would hurt. I am under the impression that Obama is defining profits as money made after reinvestment, wages, bills, etc. i.e. what the owner decides to keep.

PAI,
I'm with ya on that.

[New Dracora]

In a few hours looks like there will be no need for this debate - as you'll be able to experience it first hand.

[Sheynat]

Nov 4, 2008 21:43:34 GMT -5 New Dracora said:

In a few hours looks like there will be no need for this debate - as you'll be able to experience it first hand.

It ain't over until the fat lady sings. But man, if McCain pulls this off, it will be the all time greatest comeback in the history of comebacks.

[The Undaunted]

What's that? Is that an obese woman singing? Doesn't look like there will be any comeback this time...

[Bad Infinitum]

The neighbors just set off fireworks...CNN, Comedy Central, and Google are all declaring Obama has nearly or over 300 electoral votes.

Let's see how this goes.

[New Dracora]

Nov 4, 2008 23:11:36 GMT -5 Bad Infinitum said:

The neighbors just set off fireworks...CNN, Comedy Central, and Google are all declaring Obama has nearly or over 300 electoral votes.

Let's see how this goes.

Well if google says so, then it's beyond doubt. ;D

[Sheynat]

All hail the fat lady! She is powerful and wise!